In [1]:
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")

# Libraries for data manipulation and visualization
import pandas as pd

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

import seaborn as sns
In [2]:
df_armed_conflict = pd.read_excel("Task 1 - Data Incident.xlsx")
In [3]:
# Copying data to another variable to avoid any changes to the original data
df = df_armed_conflict.copy()
In [4]:
df = df[(df['country'] == 'Mali') & (df['year'].isin([2021, 2022])) & (df['event_type'] == 'Violence against civilians')]
In [5]:
df.head()
Out[5]:
data_id iso event_id_cnty event_id_no_cnty event_date year time_precision event_type sub_event_type actor1 ... location latitude longitude geo_precision source source_scale notes fatalities timestamp iso3
37 9727585 466 MLI7872 7872 2022-12-30 2022 1 Violence against civilians Attack Military Forces of Mali (2021-) ... Sossobe Togoro 14.5608 -4.6746 1 Twitter; Undisclosed Source Local partner-Other On 30 December 2022, FAMa and Wagner forces co... 2 1673307074 MLI
38 9727643 466 MLI7930 7930 2022-12-30 2022 1 Violence against civilians Attack Unidentified Armed Group (Mali) ... Gao 16.2717 -0.0447 1 Twitter; Undisclosed Source Local partner-Other On 30 December 2022, an unidentified armed gro... 0 1673307074 MLI
39 9727644 466 MLI7931 7931 2022-12-30 2022 1 Violence against civilians Attack Unidentified Armed Group (Mali) ... Gao 16.2717 -0.0447 1 Undisclosed Source Local partner-Other On 30 December 2022, an unidentified armed gro... 0 1673307074 MLI
40 9727645 466 MLI7932 7932 2022-12-30 2022 1 Violence against civilians Abduction/forced disappearance Islamic State (Sahel) ... Anderamboukane 15.4220 3.0224 1 Undisclosed Source Local partner-Other On 30 December 2022, IS Sahel militants abduct... 0 1673307074 MLI
66 9861783 466 MLI7929 7929 2022-12-30 2022 1 Violence against civilians Attack Dawsahak Ethnic Militia (Mali) ... Bagoundie 16.2191 -0.0193 2 Twitter; Undisclosed Source Local partner-Other On 30 December 2022, Dawsahak gunmen opened fi... 1 1677520657 MLI

5 rows × 31 columns

In [6]:
df.shape
Out[6]:
(1128, 31)
In [7]:
df["data_id"].nunique()
df["event_id_cnty"].nunique()
Out[7]:
1128

All the values in the ID column are unique. We can drop this column as it would not add value to our analysis.

In [8]:
# Dropping ID column
df.drop(["data_id"], axis = 1, inplace = True)
df.drop(["event_id_cnty"], axis = 1, inplace = True)
In [9]:
df.info()

<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
Int64Index: 1128 entries, 37 to 21509
Data columns (total 29 columns):
 #   Column            Non-Null Count  Dtype         
---  ------            --------------  -----         
 0   iso               1128 non-null   int64         
 1   event_id_no_cnty  1128 non-null   int64         
 2   event_date        1128 non-null   datetime64[ns]
 3   year              1128 non-null   int64         
 4   time_precision    1128 non-null   int64         
 5   event_type        1128 non-null   object        
 6   sub_event_type    1128 non-null   object        
 7   actor1            1128 non-null   object        
 8   assoc_actor_1     235 non-null    object        
 9   inter1            1128 non-null   int64         
 10  actor2            1128 non-null   object        
 11  assoc_actor_2     816 non-null    object        
 12  inter2            1128 non-null   int64         
 13  interaction       1128 non-null   int64         
 14  region            1128 non-null   object        
 15  country           1128 non-null   object        
 16  admin1            1128 non-null   object        
 17  admin2            1128 non-null   object        
 18  admin3            1128 non-null   object        
 19  location          1128 non-null   object        
 20  latitude          1128 non-null   float64       
 21  longitude         1128 non-null   float64       
 22  geo_precision     1128 non-null   int64         
 23  source            1128 non-null   object        
 24  source_scale      1128 non-null   object        
 25  notes             1128 non-null   object        
 26  fatalities        1128 non-null   int64         
 27  timestamp         1128 non-null   int64         
 28  iso3              1128 non-null   object        
dtypes: datetime64[ns](1), float64(2), int64(10), object(16)
memory usage: 264.4+ KB
In [10]:
# Making a list of all categorical variables
cat_col = list(df.select_dtypes("object").columns)

# Printing count of each unique value in each categorical column
for column in cat_col:
    print(df[column].value_counts(normalize = False))
    print("-" * 50)

Violence against civilians    1128
Name: event_type, dtype: int64
--------------------------------------------------
Attack                            767
Abduction/forced disappearance    357
Sexual violence                     4
Name: sub_event_type, dtype: int64
--------------------------------------------------
Unidentified Armed Group (Mali)                                                                             226
JNIM: Group for Support of Islam and Muslims                                                                226
Katiba Macina                                                                                               155
Military Forces of Mali (2021-)                                                                             113
Islamic State (Sahel)                                                                                       108
Dozo Communal Militia (Mali)                                                                                 75
Dan Na Ambassagou                                                                                            69
Islamic State (West Africa) - Greater Sahara Faction                                                         62
Military Forces of Mali (2020-2021)                                                                          22
MSA: Movement for Azawad Salvation                                                                           14
Wagner Group                                                                                                 13
Katiba Serma                                                                                                  5
Police Forces of Mali (2021-) Gendarmerie                                                                     4
Police Forces of Mali (2021-)                                                                                 3
Soninke Ethnic Militia (Mali)                                                                                 3
Katiba Gourma                                                                                                 3
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group                                                            3
JNIM: Group for Support of Islam and Muslims and/or Islamic State (West Africa) - Greater Sahara Faction      2
AQIM: Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb                                                                         2
Military Forces of France (2017-)                                                                             2
MINUSMA: United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (2021-)                     2
Ansar Dine                                                                                                    1
Unidentified Communal Militia (Mali)                                                                          1
JNIM: Group for Support of Islam and Muslims and/or Islamic State (Sahel)                                     1
Bambara Ethnic Militia (Mali)                                                                                 1
MAA: Arab Movement of the Azawad (Platform)                                                                   1
FLN: Front for the Liberation of the Northern Regions                                                         1
Unidentified Armed Group (Chad)                                                                               1
Unidentified Armed Group (International)                                                                      1
Fulani Ethnic Militia (Mali)                                                                                  1
Private Security Forces (China)                                                                               1
Dawsahak Ethnic Militia (Mali)                                                                                1
Gandakoy Ethnic Militia (Mali)                                                                                1
Military Forces of Niger (2021-)                                                                              1
Ganda Izo                                                                                                     1
Military Forces of Chad (1990-2021)                                                                           1
Military Forces of Chad (2021-)                                                                               1
Name: actor1, dtype: int64
--------------------------------------------------
JNIM: Group for Support of Islam and Muslims                                                     166
Wagner Group                                                                                      35
Wagner Group; Dan Na Ambassagou                                                                    9
Military Forces of Mali (2021-)                                                                    7
Dan Na Ambassagou                                                                                  4
Dozo Communal Militia (Mali)                                                                       3
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group                                                 3
G5S: G5 Sahel Force (2017-)                                                                        2
Wagner Group; Dozo Communal Militia (Mali)                                                         1
CMFPR1: Coordination of Patriotic Movements and Forces for Resistance (Plateforme)                 1
Military Forces of Mali (2021-); Dozo Communal Militia (Mali)                                      1
MSA: Movement for Azawad Salvation                                                                 1
Pastoralists (Mali)                                                                                1
MINUSMA: United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (2020-2021)      1
Name: assoc_actor_1, dtype: int64
--------------------------------------------------
Civilians (Mali)            1097
Civilians (Niger)             10
Civilians (Burkina Faso)       5
Civilians (Mauritania)         4
Civilians (Nigeria)            2
Civilians (Algeria)            2
Civilians (Germany)            1
Civilians (Sudan)              1
Civilians (Thailand)           1
Civilians (Italy)              1
Civilians (Morocco)            1
Civilians (China)              1
Civilians (Togo)               1
Civilians (France)             1
Name: actor2, dtype: int64
--------------------------------------------------
Fulani Ethnic Group (Mali); Pastoralists (Mali)            122
Labour Group (Mali)                                        122
Tuareg Ethnic Group (Mali)                                  35
Dogon Ethnic Group (Mali)                                   30
Dogon Ethnic Group (Mali); Farmers (Mali)                   25
                                                          ... 
Dawsahak Ethnic Group (Mali); Ganda Izo                      1
Labour Group (Mali); UN: United Nations                      1
CRM: Malian Red Cross; Aid Workers (Mali)                    1
Ibi Communal Group (Mali); Dogon Ethnic Group (Mali)         1
Dogon Ethnic Group (Mali); Women (Mali); Farmers (Mali)      1
Name: assoc_actor_2, Length: 218, dtype: int64
--------------------------------------------------
Western Africa    1128
Name: region, dtype: int64
--------------------------------------------------
Mali    1128
Name: country, dtype: int64
--------------------------------------------------
Mopti         458
Gao           227
Segou         153
Menaka         96
Tombouctou     92
Sikasso        33
Koulikoro      26
Kayes          22
Kidal          11
Bamako         10
Name: admin1, dtype: int64
--------------------------------------------------
Ansongo           123
Niono              95
Douentza           93
Gao                91
Bandiagara         91
Djenne             71
Mopti              69
Bankass            62
Menaka             60
Koro               40
Tombouctou         28
Gourma-Rharous     27
Macina             25
Yorosso            21
Anderamboukane     21
Goundam            19
Tenenkou           17
Youwarou           15
Segou              15
Nara               15
Bourem             13
Tominian           12
Niafunke           11
Bamako             10
Inekar             10
Dire                7
Bafoulabe           7
Diema               7
Sikasso             6
San                 6
Kidal               6
Tidermene           5
Kolokani            4
Kita                3
Koutiala            3
Abeibara            3
Banamba             3
Kati                3
Kenieba             3
Kayes               2
Tessalit            2
Dioila              1
Bougouni            1
Yanfolila           1
Kadiolo             1
Name: admin2, dtype: int64
--------------------------------------------------
Menaka             60
Gao                42
Ouattagouna        31
Bara Sara          23
Doucoumbo          23
                   ..
Pelengana           1
Diougani            1
Kava                1
Kassaro             1
Koporokendie Na     1
Name: admin3, Length: 215, dtype: int64
--------------------------------------------------
Gao                41
Menaka             32
Timbuktu           15
Parou              14
Douentza           13
                   ..
Tiogou              1
Ogossagou-Dogon     1
Deguena             1
Ouro-Nema           1
Arabebe             1
Name: location, Length: 613, dtype: int64
--------------------------------------------------
Undisclosed Source                                       218
Signal                                                    98
Whatsapp                                                  76
Twitter                                                   55
Studio Tamani                                             40
                                                        ... 
Whatsapp; Undisclosed Source; Signal                       1
Undisclosed Source; MSA Azawad                             1
Signal; Koro Kibaru; Twitter                               1
Facebook; Radio Guintan; Undisclosed Source; FAMAMali      1
Koro Kibaru; Mali Jet; Le Pays Dogon; AMAP; FAMAMali       1
Name: source, Length: 354, dtype: int64
--------------------------------------------------
Local partner-Other        436
New media                  344
New media-National         108
National                   102
New media-Subnational       52
Subnational                 19
Other-New media             15
Local partner-New media     12
Other                       11
New media-International      9
International                6
Other-National               5
National-International       3
Subnational-National         2
Regional                     1
New media-Regional           1
Other-International          1
National-Regional            1
Name: source_scale, dtype: int64
--------------------------------------------------
On 1 March 2021, the Malian army entered the villages of Tambarga and Guittiram (Douentza, Mopti). The soldiers reportedly killed two Fulani male civilians, and burned houses, granaries, and livestock. Fatalities are split across two events.                                          2
On 16 December 2022, JNIM militants killed two people and abducted ten others from the Dawsahak community in the village of Taghatert (Menaka, Menaka). JNIM claimed responsibility and said it killed 5 IS Sahel militants in Inekar, likely referring to Inekar Ouest near Taghatert.    2
On 15 December 2022, JNIM militants abducted the village chief and his son in the village of Soye (Mopti, Mopti). The abducted were released on 30 December.                                                                                                                               2
On 4 May 2021, presumed Katiba Macina (JNIM) militants simultaneously attacked the villages of Ndobougou and Kounti-Marka (Djenne, Mopti). The militants killed three people and wounded others. Fatalities are split across two events.                                                   2
On 7 September 2021, presumed Dana Ambassagou militiamen abducted a Fulani man in the town of Sevare (Mopti, Mopti).                                                                                                                                                                       1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ..
On 11 June 2022, JNIM militants attacked a toll booth in Sienso (San, Segou). The militants killed a toll booth attendant and set ablaze buildings. JNIM claimed responsibility in a statement.                                                                                            1
On 11 June 2022, FAMa and Wagner accompanied by Dan Na Ambassagou militiamen attacked the village of Yalema (Bankass, Mopti). Three people were killed, jewelry stolen, and a water tower sabotaged.                                                                                       1
On 10 June 2022, presumed MSA militiamen aboard a pickup truck abducted an Arab merchant in the town of Menaka (Menaka, Menaka).                                                                                                                                                           1
On 10 June 2022, IS Sahel militants killed two pastoralist men in the village of Inarinkadane (Menaka, Menaka).                                                                                                                                                                            1
On 2 January 2021, unknown gunmen abducted an imam in the village of Arabebe (Niafunke, Tombouctou). The imam was released on 22 January.                                                                                                                                                  1
Name: notes, Length: 1124, dtype: int64
--------------------------------------------------
MLI    1128
Name: iso3, dtype: int64
--------------------------------------------------
In [11]:
df.describe().T
Out[11]:
count mean std min 25% 50% 75% max
iso 1128.0 4.660000e+02 0.000000e+00 4.660000e+02 4.660000e+02 4.660000e+02 4.660000e+02 4.660000e+02
event_id_no_cnty 1128.0 6.298388e+03 9.696360e+02 4.627000e+03 5.434750e+03 6.359500e+03 7.107250e+03 8.288000e+03
year 1128.0 2.021559e+03 4.967850e-01 2.021000e+03 2.021000e+03 2.022000e+03 2.022000e+03 2.022000e+03
time_precision 1128.0 1.057624e+00 2.406263e-01 1.000000e+00 1.000000e+00 1.000000e+00 1.000000e+00 3.000000e+00
inter1 1128.0 2.474291e+00 1.153389e+00 1.000000e+00 2.000000e+00 2.000000e+00 3.000000e+00 8.000000e+00
inter2 1128.0 7.000000e+00 0.000000e+00 7.000000e+00 7.000000e+00 7.000000e+00 7.000000e+00 7.000000e+00
interaction 1128.0 3.157535e+01 1.076932e+01 1.700000e+01 2.700000e+01 2.700000e+01 3.700000e+01 7.800000e+01
latitude 1128.0 1.492655e+01 1.174712e+00 1.089470e+01 1.415333e+01 1.482675e+01 1.581960e+01 2.267440e+01
longitude 1128.0 -2.781737e+00 2.920067e+00 -1.205490e+01 -4.511325e+00 -3.570600e+00 -4.470000e-02 3.709500e+00
geo_precision 1128.0 1.332447e+00 4.731781e-01 1.000000e+00 1.000000e+00 1.000000e+00 2.000000e+00 3.000000e+00
fatalities 1128.0 2.317376e+00 8.722294e+00 0.000000e+00 0.000000e+00 0.000000e+00 1.000000e+00 1.300000e+02
timestamp 1128.0 1.647062e+09 1.749793e+07 1.613420e+09 1.630983e+09 1.649700e+09 1.663010e+09 1.678155e+09
In [12]:
for col in ['iso', 'year', 'time_precision','inter1','inter2','interaction','latitude','longitude','geo_precision','fatalities','timestamp']:
    print(col)
    
    print('Skew :',round(df[col].skew(), 2))
    
    plt.figure(figsize = (15, 4))
    
    plt.subplot(1, 2, 1)
    
    df[col].hist(bins = 10, grid = False)
    
    plt.ylabel('count')
    
    plt.subplot(1, 2, 2)
    
    sns.boxplot(x = df[col])
    
    plt.show()

iso
Skew : 0

year
Skew : -0.24

time_precision
Skew : 4.18

inter1
Skew : 2.09

inter2
Skew : 0

interaction
Skew : 1.57

latitude
Skew : 0.38

longitude
Skew : 0.17

geo_precision
Skew : 0.74

fatalities
Skew : 9.94

timestamp
Skew : -0.07
In [13]:
import plotly.express as px
In [14]:
fig = px.scatter(df, x='longitude', y='latitude', color='sub_event_type', hover_data=['event_date'])
fig.show()
In [15]:
fig = px.scatter(df, x='longitude', y='latitude', size='fatalities', color='sub_event_type', hover_data=['event_date'])
fig.show()
In [16]:
events_by_actor=df.groupby('actor1')['event_type'].count().sort_values(ascending=False).nlargest(10)

fatalities_by_actor=df.groupby('actor1')['fatalities'].sum().sort_values(ascending=False).nlargest(10)

fig, (ax1,ax2) = plt.subplots(nrows=2,figsize=(6,8))

sns.barplot(x=events_by_actor.values, y=events_by_actor.index, color='blue', ax=ax1)
sns.barplot(x=fatalities_by_actor.values, y=fatalities_by_actor.index, color='red', ax=ax2)

ax1.set_title('Actors with the most events')
ax2.set_title('Actors with the most fatalities')
ax1.set_xlabel('Number of events')
ax2.set_xlabel('Number of fatalities')

fig.subplots_adjust(hspace=0.3)

plt.show()
In [17]:
events_by_city=df.groupby('admin1')['event_type'].count().sort_values(ascending=False).nlargest(10)

fatalities_by_city=df.groupby('admin1')['fatalities'].sum().sort_values(ascending=False).nlargest(10)

fig, (ax1,ax2) = plt.subplots(nrows=2,figsize=(6,8))

sns.barplot(x=events_by_city.values, y=events_by_city.index, color='blue', ax=ax1)
sns.barplot(x=fatalities_by_city.values, y=fatalities_by_city.index, color='red', ax=ax2)

ax1.set_title('Cities with the most events')
ax2.set_title('Cities with the most fatalities')
ax1.set_xlabel('Number of events')
ax2.set_xlabel('Number of fatalities')

fig.subplots_adjust(hspace=0.3)

plt.show()
In [ ]: